No more cheap oil No. 1

In the 21 April, Monday, The Wall Street Journal, it reported on the general state of affairs of crude oil price, price speculation, and future production. The following excerpts and musings make up rough energy market info on what drives agri-energy technology.

Adequate inexpensive fuels- "cheap" fuels have now gone the way of the penny stamp and the nickel candy bar- and agriculture are necessities we can sustain if we think hard about and follow through with corridor development.

The Wall Street Journal, "Saudis wary of new oil projects pending sales forecast," by Spencer Swartz, p. C6; 21 April M 08.

• bull market in crude oil just got a catalyst that could push prices even higher, if not prevent them from falling significantly.
  
• Saudi Arabia may be reluctant to develop new oil projects after 2009

--it has no plans to increase oil production capacity beyond the 11% it will add during 2009

--it is waiting on more predictability about crude oil consumption

--it fears output / consumption of biofuels will reduce demand, which decreases the profitability of new oil field development

--the data confirming or invalidating market changes may be "several years away."

• Asia and emerging markets are [wildcards].
  
• non-OPEC producers are unable to fill in the slack created by less OPEC production.
  
• Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia oil minister- "All the latest projection- at least up to 2020- do not require [developing] anything higher [than the planned 11%]."

--Saudi Arabia hasn't, until now, laid out a timeline to when new capacity might be addedo "If you look at projections for demand, it has started going down."

[so Saudi Arabia and OPEC can work the politics of "over a barrel" as well as the degree of production.]

DrumBeat: April 18, 2008, Posted by Leanan at theoildrum.com/ tells about a few of the causes of $115+ per barrel crude oil-

• a Nigerian rebel group said Friday it had sabotaged a major oil pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell and vowed to step up attacks on oil installations. * Strikers at the major southern French oil port of Fos-Lavera vowed to remain on picket lines through Saturday. The strike trapped 23 vessels, including four crude oil tankers and six refined products tankers in the port.
  
• a similar strike in March lasted 17 days and forced four oil refineries with 603,000 barrels per day of combined capacity to curtail operations, helping spur a late spring rally in European diesel prices.
  
• a British union will launch a two-day strike on April 27 at Ineos Grangemouth refinery, forcing it to shut down with a reduction of delivery by the North Sea Forties pipeline system, which terminates there.

"All of the techniques [for estimating global oil reserves and production] seem to be converging to show a likely decline in production in the next few years, or even starting about 2005. Oil production data suggests that world oil production has been flat to slightly declining for the last two years, so it is possible the decline has already begun."

[Farm energy production / agri-energy production is highly unlikely to suffer from this kind of headache]

--to be continued

Life and finding work in South Dakota- No. 2

Just before I went outside to shovel the “April showers” off the sidewalks, Dakota News Network reported a bit more about the I-29 technology corridor, mentioning “the South Dakota equivalent of California’s Silicon Valley.” The manufacturing and technology corridor development is to stretch from Yankton north to Aberdeen. In addition to the corridor, this eastern area of the state also has some of the best wind power of the nation- classes 4/5/6.

Whether wind development will be done to complement hydropower and power from the coal-fired Big Stone electricity plant has not been mentioned in the media, so one has to assume it hasn't been discussed by the ad hoc working group.

After shoveling and a bit of lunch I did a Google search which found about 291,000 URLs for “silicon valley economic development.” One defined the organization of development we now take for granted as “Silicon Valley” One of the pages had “An industry cluster is a symbiotic, living entity that grows best when nurtured in hothouses of like-minded companies.

"[These] leading clusters call Silicon Valley home
>> Semiconductors
>> Computer & Communications Hardware
>> Electronic Components
>> Software
>> Biomedical
>> Creative & Innovation and
>> Nano-Bio-Info Technology Convergence.”

For an I-29 technology corridor to flourish, it can use this as a proven business model and development structure. The development can adopt and modify the SV industry clusters concept with respect to our region's assets.

An overview of an industry cluster has this information
>> Industry name
>> Profile
>> Changes driving opportunities
>> Where the opportunities are
>> Major labor market trends
>> Silicon Valley Firms
>> Venture Capital Investments
>> Cluster Infrastructure and
>> Detailed Industry Components.

What industry or industries can we seed and grow much like Silicon Valley grew microelec-tronics, computers, and software? What need (actual or latent) can the I-29 technology corridor satisfy as SV meets needs?

This is food for action, not just thought in these times of triple-digit oil prices and $3 billion dollar farm bill programs. There has to be positive cash flow somewhere out there.

A focus on agri-energy in the I-29 corridor would be much like the focus on transistors and other electronic components that served as the foundation for Silicon Valley's successes. Both are regional "fits;" both are "spheres of economic activity" that satisfy needs. In SV's case the needs became "all things digital." I-29 can address energy availability in parallel with meeting needs for foods and fibers.

Life and finding work in South Dakota- No. 1

Yep, it's definitely spring in South Dakota. The snow is wetter. During the night of 10 April 08 nearly 6" of snow fell; people who owned four-wheel drive pickups and SUVs had one more reason to drive like maniacs, so they did. Robins, which I have seen around here for a week or so, must be wondering WTH is going on, where's the "global warming?"

With temperatures in the low-30s Farenheit, the streets and avenues of Watertown are deep with slush, the ruts of which keep a compact car like mine going that way when I need to turn this way. 'Tis not a problem if indeed you want to go "that way," but can be a struggle to get out of the slush rut. As you try to angle through the stuff the car slides somewhat in the direction it was initially going. The worst-case is sliding into an on-coming car or one parked at the curb; the car could slide into the curb or just get stuck. Lotta details to keep in mind whilst driving here.

Wagon trains heading west faced ruts and individual wagoneers struggled, too, when they wanted, say, to go to St. Loius rather than stay on the Oregon Trail. (Oh sure, that's a "reach" to compare a 21st century city-driver with 19th century pioneers since our situations are only marginally similar, but we both bumped and jolted across ruts to get where we want to be.

They wanted to start new lives "out West," and I need to start a new job, being unemployed now since the end of November 2007. I have applied for work at a number of companies here, in Sioux Falls, Aberdeen, and outside South Dakota. Even with all of the rejections and shaken (not stirred) self-confidence, I know I'm only hosed if I stop slinging applications and "beating the bushes" by writing "food for thought, if not action" letters. I am an information researcher / writer to support customer service and /or business development. I'm never without "something to do" with this as my "work title."

At this point I am skilled in researching information and have a talent for organizing the results of my research into written ... abstracts? summaries? tracts? screeds? missives? monologues? blatherings? Yeah, something like that.

"That" is what I do well (think I do well) and enjoy doing. The Watertown Regional Library is the best place on the planet; every library is the best place on the planet. I've been a patron at King County Library, Salt Lake County Library, Tucson Public Library, Murray Library, and others. In them I can find an answer to nearly every question and a solution to nearly every question. (Religious strife, political logic, clean coal, effective schools, and other oxymorons are in the "nearly" categories.)

Don't let what you don't have prevent doing what you can do." Lou Holtz.

Always follow your passion. Rush Limbaugh.

Keep on chasing that dream; even though you're right behind it, you might not find it. The band they named a city after, Boston.

A new purpose and intent

Former Senators Bob Dole (R-KS) and Tom Daschle (D-SD) released New Markets for American Agriculture, a report by the 21st Century Agriculture Project, sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center. The report highlights investing in biofuels and wind farms to provide farmers and ranchers with new and diversified sources of income.

The report addresses ways to improve economic prospects for agricultural producers with a focus on clean energy development.

Amidst these many challenges, lay many opportunities, for a strong agricultural sector is a pillar of America’s growing economy

• providing a secure domestic food supply
• helping to reduce our dependence on foreign oil
• generating renewable energy
• increasing exports and
• providing needed income to rural communities.

USDA identified those clean energy types that people in rural America can develop for meeting local and/or national needs

• anaerobic digestion (Methane Recovery)
• biogas
• biofuels production
• biodiesel
• solar biomass
• geothermal
• solar electric power
• thermal conversion
• waste vegetable oil (WVO) for biodiesel production and
• wind power.

With the price of a barrel of crude oil at $110 or so, these energy types can be put to work generating electricity or replacing some petro-diesel with biodiesel.

WVO disposal is a problem where ever food is made for the public in cafeterias, restaurants, pubs, and the like. Individuals can recycle used cooking oils into biodiesel for small- and medium-sized engines. This can make a difference in getting things done or paying more every year to get those things done. We can act or we can have some cheese with our whine.

The methods, processes, equipment, and experts are on the Web. Perhaps at one time the doing was cheaper than today, but it has never been easier. Energy production is perennial practice that will complement existing ag production.

One example
"Spray-On Solar-Power Cells Are True Breakthrough," Stefan Lovgren, National Geographic News, January 14, 2005.

"Scientists have invented a plastic solar cell that can turn the sun's power into electrical energy, even on a cloudy day."

"The plastic material uses nanotechnology and contains the first solar cells able to harness the sun's invisible, infrared rays. The breakthrough has led theorists to predict that plastic solar cells could one day become five times more efficient than current solar cell technology."

"With further advances, the new plastic "could allow up to 30 percent of the sun's radiant energy to be harnessed, compared to 6 percent in today's best plastic solar cells," said Peter Peumans, a Stanford University electrical engineering professor, who studied the work."

"At a current cost of 25 to 50 cents per kilowatt-hour, solar power is significantly more expensive than conventional electrical power for residences."

About second chances- "Slouching Toward Fargo"

Initially assigned by Rolling Stone magazine to produce a "hatchet job" about Bill Murray and his part-ownership of a minor league baseball team, Slouching Toward Fargo instead was written by Neal Karlen to highlight the fun and good times that should be the heart and soul of baseball.

Even though the St. Paul Saints baseball team was like an "old-time carnival" and consistently sold-out its home, Midway Stadium, offering second chances was the result. Darryl Strawberry, Kevin Gardner, and J.D. Drew were on the roster for a time, as were Ila Borders (first woman pitcher in men's professional baseball), Dave Stevens, and Wayne "Twig" Terwilliger.

Mike Veeck- sounds like wreck- ensured that the fans "got their money's worth" with Tobias, the fresh-baseball delivery pig and inflated sumo-suit wrestling. Veeck, Murray (who attended games when his movie career allowed), athletes, and many other talented front-office people made Midway the best destination of the "Twin Cities" of St. Paul and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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In many ways, farm energy production is a second chance the U.S. to regain a bit of energy self-sufficiency. Wind energy in SD carries an estimated 1,030 billion kWhs of power each year; ethanol production and biodiesel production bring better prices for commodities as well as a means to solve a waste-disposal problem by converting used cooking oil into biodiesel. These two forms of energy are abundant in many states and remain "underperforming assets."

Local electricity generation and local biodiesel production for use in transit, fire fighting, mail delivery, and other and services will reduce municipal electricity bills and fuel costs. And the air might smell more like fried chicken than diesel fumes by the end of each day.

But no freshly mown ballpark grass here; today the temperatures are sub-zero and the skies sunny. Standing next to a south-facing wall makes me almost smell that grass; walking back to my car (it's not a St. Paul Saints "Northern League car") instantly snaps me back to "the real world." My footsteps "eek-auk" up to the driver's-side door which groans, as it always does when it is not just cold out there; it's damn cold.

(About now I wish Summer had a second chance.)

USDA hampers Farm energy production

Good afternoon Secretary Conner-

Farm energy production are practices that every ag producer and rural community member can review, then select the best one(s) for their situation.

A natural point to start this review is the Energy Types webpage. The links from the types- such as "anaerobic digester"- go to generic splash pages (in this case, to "Welcome to USDA Rural Development's Electric Programs") that are completely disconnected from the "energy type" link. "

"Muddying the water" seems to be the purpose of the "splash pages;" the producer or resident is left to randomly try "headers" on the chance that something relevant is behind them. Information overload" is increased to the point of leaving the page, angry that promised knowledge on the "energy type" became a "bait and switch" tactic.

More frightening is the thought that the mis-direction was intended, that USDA merely is "running farm energy production up the flagpole" to give the appearance of "being on-board" the national energy security bandwagon.

From the Electric Programs "splash page" is a Renewable Energy link which at first glance, holds promise. More links; perhaps Renewable Energy Technology Resources has something on "anaerobic digesters." Ah, another page of links-

Wind, Solar, Biomass, Geothermal, Hydrogen, Energy Efficiency, and Electric Utility Interconnection. There- Anaerobic Digesters - AgSTAR Program- in Biomass. Excellent! (If you notice the logo and page layout change, you'll see we're now at the EPA. Farm energy production and pollution reduction/management go "hand-in-hand," for this technology, anyhow.)

The AgSTAR Program is a voluntary effort jointly sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the U.S. Department of Energy. Which means there are three sources of funds for planning and installing your anaerobic digester, three different set of paperwork, and three different sets of regulations and requirements to comply with. (No one said farm energy production was gonna be easy.)

Naturally there's a link list to provide more information on the AgSTAR Program:

Basic Information
Accomplishments
Experts & Industry Directory
Documents Tools and Resources
Workshops/Conferences and
Guide to Operational Systems.

USDA can develop simple link-lists that carry the farmer, rancher, community leader, or lender, from the "energy type" to a specific description (no more than two paragraphs are needed) of what it is and how it can be used in farm energy production.

From there the method (such as "energy efficiency") or technology is briefly described as well. Slash verbiage to provide only information on what is "on the shelf" now; save the research results and vision and mission statements for the land grant colleges.

Following the "what" and "where" is "how;" tell the producer or the town official the steps s/he should expect to take to be a successful farm energy producer. Most of the steps can be made visible for easy understanding and planning; the remaining few can be made known to extension and/or technical professionals for their implementation guidance.

(Lists of these contacts should be highlighted and linked- {don't "nest" links} for easiest way-finding- in the steps.Their knowledge and time are valuable and has to be focused on only those "nuts that are tough to crack.")

"Energy types" link lists need to eliminate "information overload" by delivering the specific information that has been "headlined." Doing that will enable producers and town officials to transform the "bread basket of the world" into America's "energy basket."

Title IX of the 2002 "farm bill" established the precedent-

--new programs and grants for procurement of biobased products
--support development of biorefineries
--educate the public about benefits of biodiesel fuel use
--assist eligible farmers, ranchers, and rural small businesses in purchasing renewable energy systems and
reauthorizes and broadens the bioenergy program.

Site map-like linklists support efficiency in putting the precedent to work in the 2007 "farm bill" Title IX Energy.

Earning $152,878, leasing for $4,000

$152,878 is a conservative estimate of revenue from a large wind turbine on South Dakota ag land. Land owners are being told to accept $4,000 per turbine in a wind lease or their land will be isolated from development.

Sadly, producers have a lot of experience with selling their crops and livestock for poverty-level profits; once again they face marketing a new commodity without knowing its value.

With every hour "superb" wind speed (faster than 24 mph), a 1.5 MW can generate up to 3,195 kW. A South Dakota land owner isn't paid "fair market value" because s/he doesn't yet have "aerinomics" information. S/he has more agronomics information than s/he "can shake a stick at" on other ag practices, but not aerinomics on wind farming.

Utility companies are "cherry picking" some of the nation's fourth-best wind power from land owners from a position of knowing they can

• sell- at a premium- wind power as "green power" or "blue skies" power and/or
• sell it as plain ol' power to consumers where rates are 11¢ and even 14¢ kWh.

Larger businesses have, since the dawn of time, "cherry picked" from the low to sell high, so wind farming is just the next "it's only business."