Your great-uncle (like mine) or great-grandad may have used wind power to pump water from wells. Now a South Dakota resource- 1,030 billion kWhs- is being harnessed to help light homes and businesses.
27 wind turbines are in Highmore, the largest wind farm in South Dakota. Its 27 1.5 MW (1,500 kW) turbines produce enough electricity to power over 14 thousand homes.
Each ton of coal consumed at an electric power plant produces about 2,000 kilowatthours (2 MW) of electricity. 2,000 pounds of coal, 2,000 kWhs; we'll say burning one pound of coal yields one kWh. At these numbers, the turbines at Highmore prevent burning 40.5 tons of coal for every hour of 30+ mph wind.
A 500 megawatt coal plant uses 2.2 billion gallons of water a year, for cooling and for steam production. At these numbers, each turbine at Highmore prevents the loss of 341 gallons of water for every hour of 30+ mph wind. More water for people, plants, and livestock in addition to cleaner air.
As a friend of mine would say: Hmmmm.
1 kW = 1.359 HP
1 Pound of Coal = 10,000 Btu
1 Kilowatthour of Electricity = 3,412 Btu
1 Gallon of Heating Oil = 139,000 Btu
1 Gallon of Propane = 91,000 Btu
1 Cubic Foot of Natural Gas = 1,021 Btu
1 kg = 2.2 lbs
cubic meters to cubic yards, multiply by 1.31
To convert MPH to M/S divide MPH by 2.2
To convert M/S to MPH multiply M/S by 2.2
1 meter / second = 2.23 mph
1 meter squared = 10.764 feet squared
50 m = 164'; 1 m = 3.28 feet.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Friday, December 21, 2007
Less required backup; Innovations in power generation and delivery
On December 13, 2007 in an article titled Less Backup for Wind Power May Be Required, it describes why integrating wind power and "the grid" is being found as less and less of a "burden."
The varying nature of wind power means that it is harder to forecast than the fluctuations in electricity demand. Adding large quantities of wind power to power systems is therefore challenging. The results of a recent study coordinated by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland indicate the frequently stated claim of wind power requiring an equal amount of reserve power for backup is not correct.
In areas where wind power production is high during peak demand, wind power can replace other capacity by up to 40% of the installed wind power capacity.
The study showed
---------
But then reality brings us back to "the real world" with:
Wind power bills rising
"It costs more to be green; regular Xcel customers will pay less as natural gas prices drop," by Gargi Chakrabarty; December 13, 2007.
Xcel's voluntary wind power customers in Colorado will be hit with higher bills beginning next year. But regular customers will benefit from lower electric bills, according to Xcel filings with regulators late Tuesday.
[Until all of the costs of electricity generation- environmental, social, political, transportation, transmission, and management- are weighed in a cost/benefit "spread-sheet," value/ deficiencies will make wind and other alternative energies power an "also-ran."]
[Individuals must act; passivity is not an option!]
---------
Consolidated Power Producers, Inc.
is establishing Limited Liability Companies in South and North Dakota counties for local development of wind and other power co-generation systems in
Local focus, regional impact- CPPI delivers systems and services for citizens of the Dakotas so they can
Stream Energy is a Texas CREP (Competitive Retail Electric Providers) who buys energy from a variety of sources so that we can offer extremely competitive prices and services to its customers.
Entrepreneurship is one of the key building blocks of Stream Energy....
This strategy means that its customers are working with a partner, not merely shopping for price.
Stream Energy's management team delivers highly customized products, processes or, in some cases, special terms of service....
---------
[Use these innovative methods to profit from- rather than curse- every windy day.]
The varying nature of wind power means that it is harder to forecast than the fluctuations in electricity demand. Adding large quantities of wind power to power systems is therefore challenging. The results of a recent study coordinated by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland indicate the frequently stated claim of wind power requiring an equal amount of reserve power for backup is not correct.
In areas where wind power production is high during peak demand, wind power can replace other capacity by up to 40% of the installed wind power capacity.
The study showed
- that a substantial adjustment tolerance is already built into the power network in most countries and
- the impacts of wind power fluctuations can be further balanced through a variety of measures.
---------
But then reality brings us back to "the real world" with:
Wind power bills rising
"It costs more to be green; regular Xcel customers will pay less as natural gas prices drop," by Gargi Chakrabarty; December 13, 2007.
Xcel's voluntary wind power customers in Colorado will be hit with higher bills beginning next year. But regular customers will benefit from lower electric bills, according to Xcel filings with regulators late Tuesday.
[Until all of the costs of electricity generation- environmental, social, political, transportation, transmission, and management- are weighed in a cost/benefit "spread-sheet," value/ deficiencies will make wind and other alternative energies power an "also-ran."]
[Individuals must act; passivity is not an option!]
---------
Consolidated Power Producers, Inc.
is establishing Limited Liability Companies in South and North Dakota counties for local development of wind and other power co-generation systems in
- generation or
- transmission.
- wind
- fuel cells
- microturbine
- solar
- biomass
- reciprocal engine
- fossil-fuel and
- methane-driven.
- North Dakota
- South Dakota and
- Minnesota.
- homeowners
- commercial and
- governments (local, county, state, and federal).
Local focus, regional impact- CPPI delivers systems and services for citizens of the Dakotas so they can
- have ownership of power generation and
- be a part of CPPI power and transmission developments in marketing power.
- Cimarron Light & Power Systems LLC (engineering and equipment)
- Cimarron Environmental Services (for energy industries)
- Cimarron Leasing & Financing and
- Jasco Electrical Services (construction & maintenance).
Stream Energy is a Texas CREP (Competitive Retail Electric Providers) who buys energy from a variety of sources so that we can offer extremely competitive prices and services to its customers.
Entrepreneurship is one of the key building blocks of Stream Energy....
This strategy means that its customers are working with a partner, not merely shopping for price.
Stream Energy's management team delivers highly customized products, processes or, in some cases, special terms of service....
---------
[Use these innovative methods to profit from- rather than curse- every windy day.]
Monday, December 17, 2007
Power transmission and small generators
In response to my question "What can I do- as an individual- to get more power transmission-lines built?" Dale Osborn, Transmission Technical Director, Midwest ISO provided insight to accomplishing building more lines in a lengthy, "food for action" reply. The following paragraphs are excerpts from Mr. Osborn's reply.
"MISO must be fair and its processes have to be transparent. The response to your letter will be available publicly."
"As a generator developer you have first choice to add generation to a power system. There are rules for transmission (transmission defined to be 100 kV and above) to interconnect and deliver energy to loads using the transmission system. However he voltage of the interconnection is not the determining issue."
""If you can develop loads that would use wind generation more efficiently, then you should pursue a business plan to match the loads and generation in South Dakota . The inference is that there is a possibility for South Dakota and other states to have contracts to supply wind energy to supply the RPS mandate. Generator revenue would be provided by RPS; transmission service would have to be paid."
"Only a few individuals could justify this business opportunity. Most probably, a consortium of government, business and the RTO’s- MISO and PJM as an example- would be required. Don't assume that all parties will agree. " [No solution is "obvious" or even a "solution."]
[Every small generator must follow] "federal regulations that require the speed or frequency of a power system be regulated. This ensures that motors don't slow down and burn out if the frequency slips too low as well as proper opperation of clocks, which rely on an unchanging frequency or speed of the generators in the system."
"Constant speed or frequency also makes it possible to interconnect utilities and account for energy exchange between the utilities."
[Wind is variable and intermittant; a single wind turbine can't deliver constant speed or frequency. Pervasive Dispersed Generation may be able to deliver constant speed or frequency.]
Rule
"Transmission Access can be purchased if it is available from MISO. If the transmission is not available and an entity wishes to pay for the transmission upgrades possible, then transmission can be made available."
"Transmission, as well as generation, has to have a source of revenue to pay for it; loads are the source of revenue for both generation and transmission. The micro approach is limited by the limited load in South Dakota. The market is limited as addressed below, but you should pursue the micro avenue if you can justify the business case to do so."
"The price of satisfying the wind mandate in the eastern states would have to be able to pay for the transmission. MISO states would probably not be willing to pay for the transmission to serve the wind mandates of the eastern states."
"The Minnesota Wind Integration Study and other studies in New York and California have shown that the value of wind energy is increased when wind resources are blended together over a large area with an adequate transmission system."
"If there is not an identifiable method to pay for the transmission, the states [their PUCs] would probably not allow the transmission revenue to be obtained from state customers who do not have a requirement for the generation."
"One constraint to the magnitude of wind generation development is the ability of other generation to regulate the system."
A later post will tell about MISO's situation for regulating the quality of wind power as it ensures the power is "always on."
Get in the Queue!
"MISO must be fair and its processes have to be transparent. The response to your letter will be available publicly."
"As a generator developer you have first choice to add generation to a power system. There are rules for transmission (transmission defined to be 100 kV and above) to interconnect and deliver energy to loads using the transmission system. However he voltage of the interconnection is not the determining issue."
""If you can develop loads that would use wind generation more efficiently, then you should pursue a business plan to match the loads and generation in South Dakota . The inference is that there is a possibility for South Dakota and other states to have contracts to supply wind energy to supply the RPS mandate. Generator revenue would be provided by RPS; transmission service would have to be paid."
"Only a few individuals could justify this business opportunity. Most probably, a consortium of government, business and the RTO’s- MISO and PJM as an example- would be required. Don't assume that all parties will agree. " [No solution is "obvious" or even a "solution."]
[Every small generator must follow] "federal regulations that require the speed or frequency of a power system be regulated. This ensures that motors don't slow down and burn out if the frequency slips too low as well as proper opperation of clocks, which rely on an unchanging frequency or speed of the generators in the system."
"Constant speed or frequency also makes it possible to interconnect utilities and account for energy exchange between the utilities."
[Wind is variable and intermittant; a single wind turbine can't deliver constant speed or frequency. Pervasive Dispersed Generation may be able to deliver constant speed or frequency.]
Rule
"Transmission Access can be purchased if it is available from MISO. If the transmission is not available and an entity wishes to pay for the transmission upgrades possible, then transmission can be made available."
"Transmission, as well as generation, has to have a source of revenue to pay for it; loads are the source of revenue for both generation and transmission. The micro approach is limited by the limited load in South Dakota. The market is limited as addressed below, but you should pursue the micro avenue if you can justify the business case to do so."
"The price of satisfying the wind mandate in the eastern states would have to be able to pay for the transmission. MISO states would probably not be willing to pay for the transmission to serve the wind mandates of the eastern states."
"The Minnesota Wind Integration Study and other studies in New York and California have shown that the value of wind energy is increased when wind resources are blended together over a large area with an adequate transmission system."
"If there is not an identifiable method to pay for the transmission, the states [their PUCs] would probably not allow the transmission revenue to be obtained from state customers who do not have a requirement for the generation."
"One constraint to the magnitude of wind generation development is the ability of other generation to regulate the system."
A later post will tell about MISO's situation for regulating the quality of wind power as it ensures the power is "always on."
Get in the Queue!
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Saudis keeping more oil home
"Saudi Industrial Drive Strains Oil-Export Role," by Neil King Jr.; The Wall Street Journal; 12 Dec 07; pA1, A17
Saudi Arabia wants to become a big exporter of chemicals, fertilizers, aluminum, and plastics.
Industrial developments will consume large quantities of Saudi oil that otherwise would be bought by other countries
Increased consumption by Middle Eastern countries by their industrial development efforts comes at a time when oil production is slumping in North Seas fields and in Mexico.
Saudis are burning crude oil to make electricity for aluminum and copper smelting and other industries
p A17
Industrial development is fast-paced in many Middle Eastern countries; per capita oil consumption in Saudi Arabia is 32 barrels; per capita oil consumption in the U.S. is 25 barrels @$94.39.
At the futures price for a bushel of soybeans, 8 bu. pay for 1 barrel; at the futures price for a bushel of corn, almost 22 bu. pay for 1 barrel.
At that conumption by Saudis, the U.S. Dept. of Energy estimates 1/3 of Saudi oil will be for its industrial growth by 2020
Bringing fresh batches of oil to market is increasingly difficult for all nations
Saudi royal mandate: use oil in electricity production plants; 2 cents per kWh or less
By 2012, 60% of Saudi power plants will be burning crude oil
Nuclear power is definitely in the power plant future for the Saudis
Four new "economic cities," each have a 3,000 MW power plant, are being built as homes for petrochemical, smelting, fertilizers, and chemicals production
Energy-intensive industrial development is being done because "this is where the energy is."
[Is this good or bad for the wind industry? The strategy looks like OPEC but adding monopolies of
We have a tremendous potential farm energy production industry here in South Dakota and elsewhere, but transforming that potential into energy self-sufficiency will demand teamwork.
Revisiting Jurassic Park: "Hold onto your butts."]
Saudi Arabia wants to become a big exporter of chemicals, fertilizers, aluminum, and plastics.
Industrial developments will consume large quantities of Saudi oil that otherwise would be bought by other countries
Increased consumption by Middle Eastern countries by their industrial development efforts comes at a time when oil production is slumping in North Seas fields and in Mexico.
Saudis are burning crude oil to make electricity for aluminum and copper smelting and other industries
p A17
Industrial development is fast-paced in many Middle Eastern countries; per capita oil consumption in Saudi Arabia is 32 barrels; per capita oil consumption in the U.S. is 25 barrels @$94.39.
At the futures price for a bushel of soybeans, 8 bu. pay for 1 barrel; at the futures price for a bushel of corn, almost 22 bu. pay for 1 barrel.
At that conumption by Saudis, the U.S. Dept. of Energy estimates 1/3 of Saudi oil will be for its industrial growth by 2020
Bringing fresh batches of oil to market is increasingly difficult for all nations
Saudi royal mandate: use oil in electricity production plants; 2 cents per kWh or less
By 2012, 60% of Saudi power plants will be burning crude oil
Nuclear power is definitely in the power plant future for the Saudis
Four new "economic cities," each have a 3,000 MW power plant, are being built as homes for petrochemical, smelting, fertilizers, and chemicals production
Energy-intensive industrial development is being done because "this is where the energy is."
[Is this good or bad for the wind industry? The strategy looks like OPEC but adding monopolies of
- fertilizer production & exporting
- petrochemicals production & exporting and
- aluminum and copper production & exporting.
We have a tremendous potential farm energy production industry here in South Dakota and elsewhere, but transforming that potential into energy self-sufficiency will demand teamwork.
Revisiting Jurassic Park: "Hold onto your butts."]
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Biodiesel from Waste Vegetable Oil
Another form of farm energy production is "ginning" biodiesel from waste vegetable oil (WVO). Like wind WVOs are found in abundance, yet remain a vastly under-used resource. The following three sections give overviews of this type of biodiesel production.
One
Waste Cooking Oil to Biodiesel Automated Fuel Pump Project, Deep Blue at the University of Michigan
INTRODUCTION p. 5 of 80
A potential customer for our product is the University of Michigan grounds crew, which could use the system to fuel some or possibly all of their diesel vehicles. The university residence hall cafeterias would be the primary source of waste grease. Using waste grease from the residence hall would eliminate the cost the university faces for the removal of the cooking oil; in addition to the savings associated with producing fuel in‐house makes our product desirable for both the U of M grounds crew and the residence hall cafeterias.
Another possible use for biodiesel produced from waste grease is heating University buildings.
Two
A Biodiesel Primer: Market & Public Policy Developments, Quality, Standards & Handling,
Prepared by Methanol Institute and International Fuel Quality Center, April 2006, 31 pages.
Three
Make your own biodiesel was Retrieved from the URL on 11 Dec 07.
Anybody can make biodiesel. It's easy [with practice, patience, attention to detail], you can make it in your kitchen -- Your diesel motor will run better and last longer on your home-made fuel, and it's much cleaner -- better for the environment and better for health.
If you make it from used cooking oil it's not only cheap but you'll be recycling a troublesome waste product. This is more appealing than using new oil, but it's also more complicated.
The production rate was less than with new oil, ending with 8-9 litres of biodiesel instead of 10. With care and experience the production rate improves to almost 1 litre of used cooking oil yielding 1 litre of biodiesel.
It's essential to titrate the oil to find out how much FFA it contains so you can calculate exactly how much extra lye will be required to neutralise it. This means determining the pH using
Search terms
Biodiesel processors
transesterification catalyst
One
Waste Cooking Oil to Biodiesel Automated Fuel Pump Project, Deep Blue at the University of Michigan
INTRODUCTION p. 5 of 80
A potential customer for our product is the University of Michigan grounds crew, which could use the system to fuel some or possibly all of their diesel vehicles. The university residence hall cafeterias would be the primary source of waste grease. Using waste grease from the residence hall would eliminate the cost the university faces for the removal of the cooking oil; in addition to the savings associated with producing fuel in‐house makes our product desirable for both the U of M grounds crew and the residence hall cafeterias.
Another possible use for biodiesel produced from waste grease is heating University buildings.
Two
A Biodiesel Primer: Market & Public Policy Developments, Quality, Standards & Handling,
Prepared by Methanol Institute and International Fuel Quality Center, April 2006, 31 pages.
Three
Make your own biodiesel was Retrieved from the URL on 11 Dec 07.
Anybody can make biodiesel. It's easy [with practice, patience, attention to detail], you can make it in your kitchen -- Your diesel motor will run better and last longer on your home-made fuel, and it's much cleaner -- better for the environment and better for health.
If you make it from used cooking oil it's not only cheap but you'll be recycling a troublesome waste product. This is more appealing than using new oil, but it's also more complicated.
The production rate was less than with new oil, ending with 8-9 litres of biodiesel instead of 10. With care and experience the production rate improves to almost 1 litre of used cooking oil yielding 1 litre of biodiesel.
It's essential to titrate the oil to find out how much FFA it contains so you can calculate exactly how much extra lye will be required to neutralise it. This means determining the pH using
- an electronic pH meter
- pH test strips (or litmus paper) or
- phenolphthalein solution.
Search terms
Biodiesel processors
transesterification catalyst
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Projected Electricity Demand perspective 2
A rather low-key perspective on projected electricity demand was posted on 6 Dec 07, in contrast to this more edgy observation. Both illustrate "right" as well as the difficulty facing planners, developers, and politicians. But we can't allow "them" to make decisions for us and lose a say in "what's best."
North American electricity demand still outpacing resource growth, Consulting-Specifying Engineer, 10/22/2007.
Electricity usage in the United States is projected to grow more than twice as fast as committed resources over the next 10 years, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), announced in its annual 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment.
Unless additional resources are brought into service, some areas could fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years. In parts of western Canada, demand is projected to outpace resource growth within about two years.
“We are at the stage where emergency situations are becoming more frequent,” said Rick Sergel, president and CEO of NERC, "requiring our aging grid to bear more and more strain, and are operating the system at or near its limits more often than ever before. As operating margins decrease, we are limiting our ability to manage unplanned events like equipment failures and extreme weather.”
“Renewable resources are an important part of North America’s energy future, but reliably integrating them into the bulk power system has its challenges. Large-scale wind and solar generation resources are often remotely located and will require new transmission lines to deliver their power to population centers...."
Peak demand for electricity in the United States is forecasted to increase by almost 18% (135,000 MW) in the next 10 years....
California, the Rocky Mountain states, New England, Texas, the Southwest, and the Midwest could fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years if additional supply-side and demand-side resources are not brought into service.
... projected transmission additions still lag demand growth and new generation additions in most areas.
“NIMBY is becoming NIMS: Not in My State. Reliability of the power grid in one state affects reliability in other states too, due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the power grid,” said Sergel.
[We will have to chose between "unsightly," potentially hazardous [excerpt below] high-voltage transmission lines crossing "my back yard" and an "always on" supply of electricity for our refrigerators, our cell phone battery rechargers, our LCD TVs, microwave ovens, and all of the other modern conveniences that make life "modern."]
The 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment analyzes the adequacy of the North American bulk power system through 2016 and calls for actions to improve reliability. The 238-page report is available here.
In How Dangerous Is Electromagnetic Radiation? Junu Bryan Kim writes-
"What characteristic is shared by an electric blanket, a power line, and a broadcast tower?"All three emit electromagnetic radiation."
Mr. Kim points out: "These invisible electromagnetic fields are known as EMFs. They are generated by currents running through electric wires."
"No clear cause-and-effect relationship has been established between EMFs and illnesses, but the mounting evidence makes EMFs appear to be extremely suspicious. And because EMFs are generated by many sources -- including microwave ovens, televisions and radios, military radar systems, and, ironically, some treatments for cancerous tumors -- many of us could be
at risk."
"Studies over the last 15 years have hinted at a connection between EMFs and health problems. EMFs have been implicated in behavioral changes, birth defects, memory loss, and Alzheimer's disease. In 1976, two doctors at the Veteran's Administration Hospital in Syracuse, N.Y. showed that the offspring of mice exposed to extremely low-frequency EMFs from power lines were born stunted."
[{sigh} If it's not "greenhouse gases" it's EMFs.]
1,030 billion kWhs of South Dakota wind power is the potential that can be harvested to forestall "brown outs" and "black outs." We have to just act.
Best wind.
North American electricity demand still outpacing resource growth, Consulting-Specifying Engineer, 10/22/2007.
Electricity usage in the United States is projected to grow more than twice as fast as committed resources over the next 10 years, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), announced in its annual 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment.
Unless additional resources are brought into service, some areas could fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years. In parts of western Canada, demand is projected to outpace resource growth within about two years.
“We are at the stage where emergency situations are becoming more frequent,” said Rick Sergel, president and CEO of NERC, "requiring our aging grid to bear more and more strain, and are operating the system at or near its limits more often than ever before. As operating margins decrease, we are limiting our ability to manage unplanned events like equipment failures and extreme weather.”
“Renewable resources are an important part of North America’s energy future, but reliably integrating them into the bulk power system has its challenges. Large-scale wind and solar generation resources are often remotely located and will require new transmission lines to deliver their power to population centers...."
Peak demand for electricity in the United States is forecasted to increase by almost 18% (135,000 MW) in the next 10 years....
California, the Rocky Mountain states, New England, Texas, the Southwest, and the Midwest could fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years if additional supply-side and demand-side resources are not brought into service.
... projected transmission additions still lag demand growth and new generation additions in most areas.
“NIMBY is becoming NIMS: Not in My State. Reliability of the power grid in one state affects reliability in other states too, due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the power grid,” said Sergel.
[We will have to chose between "unsightly," potentially hazardous [excerpt below] high-voltage transmission lines crossing "my back yard" and an "always on" supply of electricity for our refrigerators, our cell phone battery rechargers, our LCD TVs, microwave ovens, and all of the other modern conveniences that make life "modern."]
The 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment analyzes the adequacy of the North American bulk power system through 2016 and calls for actions to improve reliability. The 238-page report is available here.
In How Dangerous Is Electromagnetic Radiation? Junu Bryan Kim writes-
"What characteristic is shared by an electric blanket, a power line, and a broadcast tower?"All three emit electromagnetic radiation."
Mr. Kim points out: "These invisible electromagnetic fields are known as EMFs. They are generated by currents running through electric wires."
"No clear cause-and-effect relationship has been established between EMFs and illnesses, but the mounting evidence makes EMFs appear to be extremely suspicious. And because EMFs are generated by many sources -- including microwave ovens, televisions and radios, military radar systems, and, ironically, some treatments for cancerous tumors -- many of us could be
at risk."
"Studies over the last 15 years have hinted at a connection between EMFs and health problems. EMFs have been implicated in behavioral changes, birth defects, memory loss, and Alzheimer's disease. In 1976, two doctors at the Veteran's Administration Hospital in Syracuse, N.Y. showed that the offspring of mice exposed to extremely low-frequency EMFs from power lines were born stunted."
[{sigh}
1,030 billion kWhs of South Dakota wind power is the potential that can be harvested to forestall "brown outs" and "black outs." We have to just act.
Best wind.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Projected Electricity Demand perspective 1
Excerpts from two perspectives in 2007 of future demand will be posted as food for action, if not thought.
The first perspective is Electricity Demand and Supply; Continued Growth in Electricity Use Is Expected in All Sectors; 7-page PDF is a portion of the Energy Information Administration publication Annual Energy Outlook 2007.
Total electricity sales increase by 41 percent in the [Annual Energy Outlook 2007] reference case, from 3,660 billion kilowatthours in 2005 to between 4,682 billion and 5,168 billion kilowatthours in 2030.
The largest increase is in the commercial sector (Figure 53), as service industries continue to drive growth.
Growth in population and disposable income is expected to lead to increased demand for products, services, and floorspace, with a corresponding increase in demand for electricity for space heating and cooling and to power the appliances and equipment used by buildings and businesses. Population shifts to warmer regions will also increase the need for cooling.
As natural gas becomes more expensive, however, more coal-fired plants are built.
Nuclear generation also increases modestly with improvements in plant performance and expansion of existing facilities, but the nuclear share of total generation falls from 19 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in 2030. The generation share from renewable capacity (about 9 percent of total electricity supply in 2005) remains roughly constant at about 9 percent.
Most areas of the United States currently have excess generation capacity, but all electricity demand regions [Appendix F for definitions; p. 87 of 96) are expected to need additional, currently unplanned, capacity by 2030.
p. 4 Electricity Supply
There is considerable uncertainty about the growth potential of wind power, which depends on a variety of factors, including fossil fuel costs, State renewable energy programs, technology improvements, access to transmission grids, public concerns about environmental and other impacts, and the future of the Federal PTC, which was set to expire at the end of 2007 but has been extended to 2008.
Solar technologies in general remain too costly for grid-connected applications....
p. 5 Electricity Supply (continues)
Electricity generation from nonhydroelectric alternative fuels increases, however, [will be] bolstered by technology advances and State and Federal supports. The share of nonhydropower renewable generation increases by 60 percent, from 2.3 percent of total generation in 2005 to 3.6 percent in 2030.
Wind and solar are intermittent technologies that can be used only when resources are available. With relatively low operating costs and limited resource availability, their avoided costs are determined largely by the operating costs of the most expensive units in operation when their resources are available.
The availability ofwind resources varies among regions, but wind plants tend to displace intermediate load generation. Thus, the avoided costs of wind power are determined largely by the low-to-moderate operating costs of combined-cycle and coal-fired plants, which set power prices during intermediate load hours. In some regions and years, levelized costs for wind power are approximately equal to its avoided costs.
p. 6 Electricity Supply (continues)
The AEO2007 regional RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard] case assumed [and you know what happens when you "assume" something....] that all States would reach their goals within each program’s legislative framework, and the results were aggregated at the regional level.
In some States, however, compliance could be limited by authorized funding levels for the programs. For example, California is not expected to meet its renewable energy targets because of restraints on the funding of its RPS program.
[RPS states will be "green" and buy wind power from SD wind farmers only so long as there is enough money in the states' coffers. Gad. Wind power is intermitant enough already without this additional flux and flow.]
p. 7 Electricity Prices
Electricity distribution costs are projected to decline by 8 percent from 2005 to 2030, as technology improvements and a growing customer base lower the cost of the distribution infrastructure. Transmission costs, on the other hand, increase by 29 percent, because additional investment is needed to meet consumers’ growing demand for electricity and to facilitate competition in wholesale energy markets.
Economic expansion increases electricity consumption by businesses, factories, and residents as they buy and use more electrical equipment. Thus, over the long term, the rate of economic growth has a greater effect on the range of electricity prices than do oil and natural gas prices, because power suppliers can substitute coal, nuclear, and renewable fuels for expensive natural gas.
In the low and high economic growth cases, electricity prices are 7.8 and 8.4 cents per [kWh], respectively, in 2030.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 presents a projection and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The complete AEO2007 HTML and PDF versions are here.
Excerpts from the second perspective, North American electricity demand still outpacing resource growth, online at Consulting-Specifying Engineer, will be in the next post.
Best wind.
The first perspective is Electricity Demand and Supply; Continued Growth in Electricity Use Is Expected in All Sectors; 7-page PDF is a portion of the Energy Information Administration publication Annual Energy Outlook 2007.
Total electricity sales increase by 41 percent in the [Annual Energy Outlook 2007] reference case, from 3,660 billion kilowatthours in 2005 to between 4,682 billion and 5,168 billion kilowatthours in 2030.
The largest increase is in the commercial sector (Figure 53), as service industries continue to drive growth.
Growth in population and disposable income is expected to lead to increased demand for products, services, and floorspace, with a corresponding increase in demand for electricity for space heating and cooling and to power the appliances and equipment used by buildings and businesses. Population shifts to warmer regions will also increase the need for cooling.
As natural gas becomes more expensive, however, more coal-fired plants are built.
Nuclear generation also increases modestly with improvements in plant performance and expansion of existing facilities, but the nuclear share of total generation falls from 19 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in 2030. The generation share from renewable capacity (about 9 percent of total electricity supply in 2005) remains roughly constant at about 9 percent.
Most areas of the United States currently have excess generation capacity, but all electricity demand regions [Appendix F for definitions; p. 87 of 96) are expected to need additional, currently unplanned, capacity by 2030.
p. 4 Electricity Supply
There is considerable uncertainty about the growth potential of wind power, which depends on a variety of factors, including fossil fuel costs, State renewable energy programs, technology improvements, access to transmission grids, public concerns about environmental and other impacts, and the future of the Federal PTC, which was set to expire at the end of 2007 but has been extended to 2008.
Solar technologies in general remain too costly for grid-connected applications....
p. 5 Electricity Supply (continues)
Electricity generation from nonhydroelectric alternative fuels increases, however, [will be] bolstered by technology advances and State and Federal supports. The share of nonhydropower renewable generation increases by 60 percent, from 2.3 percent of total generation in 2005 to 3.6 percent in 2030.
Wind and solar are intermittent technologies that can be used only when resources are available. With relatively low operating costs and limited resource availability, their avoided costs are determined largely by the operating costs of the most expensive units in operation when their resources are available.
The availability ofwind resources varies among regions, but wind plants tend to displace intermediate load generation. Thus, the avoided costs of wind power are determined largely by the low-to-moderate operating costs of combined-cycle and coal-fired plants, which set power prices during intermediate load hours. In some regions and years, levelized costs for wind power are approximately equal to its avoided costs.
p. 6 Electricity Supply (continues)
The AEO2007 regional RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard] case assumed [and you know what happens when you "assume" something....] that all States would reach their goals within each program’s legislative framework, and the results were aggregated at the regional level.
In some States, however, compliance could be limited by authorized funding levels for the programs. For example, California is not expected to meet its renewable energy targets because of restraints on the funding of its RPS program.
[RPS states will be "green" and buy wind power from SD wind farmers only so long as there is enough money in the states' coffers. Gad. Wind power is intermitant enough already without this additional flux and flow.]
p. 7 Electricity Prices
Electricity distribution costs are projected to decline by 8 percent from 2005 to 2030, as technology improvements and a growing customer base lower the cost of the distribution infrastructure. Transmission costs, on the other hand, increase by 29 percent, because additional investment is needed to meet consumers’ growing demand for electricity and to facilitate competition in wholesale energy markets.
Economic expansion increases electricity consumption by businesses, factories, and residents as they buy and use more electrical equipment. Thus, over the long term, the rate of economic growth has a greater effect on the range of electricity prices than do oil and natural gas prices, because power suppliers can substitute coal, nuclear, and renewable fuels for expensive natural gas.
In the low and high economic growth cases, electricity prices are 7.8 and 8.4 cents per [kWh], respectively, in 2030.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2007 presents a projection and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The complete AEO2007 HTML and PDF versions are here.
Excerpts from the second perspective, North American electricity demand still outpacing resource growth, online at Consulting-Specifying Engineer, will be in the next post.
Best wind.
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